Marathon Time Predictor

Pete Riegel’s formula predicts how your time changes with distance, based on a recent race. It is widely used to set realistic goals.

Results update as you type.

Predicted marathon time

4:13:01

6:00 per km

5 km
26:23
10 km
55:00
Half marathon (21.1 km)
2:01:21

Predictions for the marathon assume proper long-distance training; without it most runners finish slower.

About this calculator

Enter a recent race distance and time, ideally from the last few weeks, run at full effort.

How to use it

  1. Choose the distance of your recent race.
  2. Enter your time.
  3. Read predictions for other distances.

The formula

T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)1.06
T1, D1
your recent time and distance
T2, D2
predicted time for another distance

Worked example

A 10 km race in 55:00

  1. Half marathon: 55:00 × (21.0975 ÷ 10)1.06 = 2:01:21.
  2. Marathon: 4:13:01.
  3. 5 km: 26:23.

What the result means

Predictions are most reliable between similar distances; from 10 km to a marathon they assume solid endurance training.

Assumptions

  • The race was run at full effort.

Limitations

  • Heat, hills and lack of long runs make real marathon times slower.

Frequently asked questions

How accurate is Riegel’s formula?

Usually within a few minutes for distances close to each other.

Why am I slower than predicted in the marathon?

The formula assumes enough long runs; many runners need more endurance work.

Which race should I use?

A recent all-out race, ideally 10 km or a half marathon.

Not medical advice. This calculator is a general screening tool and cannot diagnose any condition. Results are estimates. Please talk to a doctor or a qualified health professional about your health and before making changes to diet, exercise or treatment.

Last reviewed on 1 October 2026. Found a mistake? Tell us.